Qian Yi, Secretary-General of China Paper Association: China's paper industry has bid farewell to the era of shortage and entered an era of challenges and changes. The potential economic growth space supported by resources, energy and environment has fallen sharply. A new round of industrial restructuring and international The division of labor is going on. China's paper industry still has unreasonable product structure, partial product structure and stage surplus, the external dependence of raw materials is increasing, the technological innovation ability is not strong, the number of small and medium-sized enterprises is too large, and the level of informationization, resource utilization efficiency and environmental governance ability A series of lower-level issues need to be resolved during the transition period; there is still room for development and adjustment in the paper market demand capacity.
The basic positioning and characteristics of the paper industry
The paper industry includes three major parts: pulp manufacturing, papermaking (including mechanical paper and cardboard, handmade paper, processed paper) and paper products manufacturing. It is an important basic raw material that is closely related to national economic and social development and has sustainable development characteristics. industry.
Paper consumption is directly and indirectly affected by all sectors of society, and is closely related to national economic security. The consumption level of paper and paperboard is an important indicator of a country's economic and civilized level.
The paper industry takes wood processing residues, bamboo, reed, agricultural straw and other industrial and agricultural wastes and waste paper as raw materials. It is an important industry with sustainable development characteristics and green low-carbon characteristics in China's national economy.
China's paper industry is facing the world's largest and most promising domestic consumer market for paper and paperboard and the world's major manufacturing destinations. At present, China's paper and paperboard consumption accounts for about a quarter of the global total, accounting for Asia's total. 1/2 of consumption.
Strategic transition period – an era of challenges and change
Paper development is in an important strategic transition period
At present, the Chinese paper industry has bid farewell to the era of shortage and entered an era of challenges and changes. In the past, growth methods supported by factors such as resources, energy, and the environment are changing, and the potential economic growth space has fallen sharply. A new round of industrial restructuring and internationalization is underway, especially as manufacturing is shifting between developed and developing countries, and it also exacerbates trade disputes between countries.
China's paper industry still has unreasonable product structure, partial product structure and stage surplus, the external dependence of raw materials is increasing, the technological innovation ability is not strong, the number of small and medium-sized enterprises is too large, and the level of informationization, resource utilization efficiency and environmental governance ability A series of lower issues need to be resolved during the transition period. There is still room for development and adjustment in the paper market demand capacity. China's per capita paper and paperboard consumption still has a certain gap with developed countries, which is the potential for growth.
The situation facing
â—† Facing changes in the market environment
(1) After achieving the basic balance between supply and demand in the paper industry, China's demand growth rate has dropped and the market for some products has become saturated.
(2) Changes in demand structure and marketing model.
(3) Further intensification of the survival of the fittest, some enterprises have to withdraw from the market.
(4) Trade protection is likely to escalate, such as the recent Sino-US trade war.
(5) The acceleration of the market environment change process.
(6) The trend of global economic integration and the increasing changes in regional economic development, and the development of Southeast Asia and other regions is fast.
China's paper industry is large in volume, and the demand for bulk products is huge. The industry is facing pressure to guarantee supply. China's domestic supply and demand will also have a significant impact on the international market.
â—† Facing the transformation of development mode
In the short-term era of products, we can achieve growth by relying on scale expansion, but now it is not sustainable, and we need to return from the extraordinary development of production capacity to the track of rational and stable development.
Improve the quality of development, and guide the market and the high-end of the industry.
The paper industry needs to pay more attention to market demand changes and operational efficiency, reduce development costs, grasp the balance between investment scale, investment timing and consumption growth, change the original inertial thinking, and prevent blind expansion and redundant construction.
â—†Inevitable trend towards green development
Major changes in resources, energy, environmental bottlenecks and consumption structures that have emerged in China have forced the industry to shift towards a green development approach.
The industry faces fierce competition in global resources, markets, capital, and green barriers to product trade.
The situation requires the industry to give full play to the characteristics of the circular economy and the green and low-carbon properties of plant raw materials, relying on technological progress, innovative development models, and implementing sustainable development strategies.
Structure, resources and environment – ​​the three major challenges facing the paper industry today
Structural adjustment challenge
â—†Enterprise structure
Under the influence of quantity and scale, the papermaking capacity is still accumulating and expanding rapidly. Under the general situation of increasing industrial concentration, the scattered small and medium-sized production capacity is also expanding simultaneously; how to form a large-scale enterprise, the proportion of small and medium-sized enterprises Reasonable industrial organization structure; how to effectively prevent the blind expansion of production capacity on the basis of guaranteeing domestic demand and supply is a major challenge.
At present, due to the problem of waste paper raw materials, the government has conducted research on the domestic waste paper pulping and papermaking capacity under construction, approved and established, with a new production capacity of more than 40 million tons and a total investment of more than 150 billion yuan. Here, a strong warning signal is issued to the industry, and decisions must be made carefully for projects that have been approved, approved but not yet built.
â—†Product structure
Product homogenization is serious, and the ability to differentiate and functionalize is lacking; it is not fully formed to meet the needs of diversified consumer markets, forming a high, precise, special and differentiated product structure.
In the face of the people's growing needs for a better life, we will actively cultivate and guide the market from the supply side, especially in the processing of paper and paper products. It is necessary to speed up the optimization of the product structure and enhance the quality of products; strengthen the cultivation of varieties and brands, and publicize the quality of the brand to the society. And the industry green concept, close the gap with international varieties and brands.
â—†Material structure
The contradiction between supply and demand of raw materials is prominent, and the degree of dependence on foreign countries is increasing year by year. At the beginning of reform and opening up, China's foreign materials dependence is less than 5%. Now imported wood pulp, waste paper and wood chips have been converted to over 50%, which has increased the operation of the industry. risk.
Changes in raw material policies still have long-term uncertainties that plague corporate decision-making.
There is no breakthrough in the bottleneck of domestic raw material resources, the amount of available resources is limited, the proportion of domestic resources and raw materials is declining, and the proportion of pulp produced using domestic wood raw materials and non-wood raw materials is less than 10%, and there is still a downward trend.
The waste paper made from imported wood chips, imported commodity pulp, imported waste paper, imported finished paper and paper products together support domestic paper production and supplement domestic waste paper recycling losses, or theoretically domestic waste recycling. Most of the fiber content in paper originally came from plants grown outside the country and maintained the quality of domestic waste paper.
Domestic waste paper recycling is close to the theoretical recoverable amount, and products such as household paper cannot be recycled. In addition, the annual packaging papers, manuals and other products that are exported to foreign countries are much larger than imports. It is estimated that more than 30 million tons of paper are exported to foreign countries every year, and less than 10 million tons of paper are imported into China. If you continue to increase the amount of recycling, it is possible to recycle some non-recyclable paper or add a lot of impurities. If the replenishment is insufficient for a long time, the domestic recoverable amount, the quality of waste paper and the proportion of waste pulp will not be maintained.
The balance between various types of pulp, such as the balance of semi-chemical pulp itself, is mainly applied to corrugated base paper. At present, the country is basically shut down. The only supplement is foreign waste paper. If this part of the source is not available, it will affect the production of domestic corrugated paper. The quality of corrugated products will decline, which in turn will affect the downstream packaging industry.
Environmental challenge
â—†Natural environment
Faced with ever-increasing environmental protection requirements, increasing law enforcement efforts, and constantly raising the challenge of environmental protection investment;
Facing regional and river basin access policy changes and uncertainties;
Facing the challenges of long-term environmental governance challenges to business development.
â—†Social environment
The misunderstanding of the paper industry by society and institutions is constantly deepening. The industry's own voice is not very strong. Some government agencies and media do not understand our industry.
Trade protection trends in the international market and increased trade frictions.
Corporate social responsibility awareness and industry social image are in urgent need of change, which is a challenge for enterprises. In July last year, the China Paper Association launched the preparation of the industry social responsibility report. Through our efforts, we introduced the industry to the government, the public and the media to establish a positive image.
The upstream and downstream industries lack the necessary communication and collaborative integration. The recent fluctuations in waste paper prices have also deepened misunderstandings between industries.
Opportunity - get from the challenge
Faced with the world's largest and most promising paper consumer market, there is no opportunity to face challenges. The industry needs to work together to face the challenges and fulfill the mission entrusted by the times.
(1) Improve quality, increase variety, and strive to meet the growing needs of the people for a better life;
(2) experiencing pain, adjusting the industrial structure more rationally, and scientifically seeking long-term development;
(3) Establish awareness of industry and social responsibility, change social misunderstandings, and enhance the corporate image of the industry;
(4) Enhance innovation capabilities and improve the quality and economic benefits of industry and enterprise development;
(5) Efforts to effectively prevent pollution and reduce water and energy consumption;
(6) Promote the paper industry to achieve a strategic shift from large to strong, build a modern paper industry production system in line with China's national conditions, and achieve the development goal of green paper industry.
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